Balen’s presence may not be enough for RSP to succeed in Madhesh

As attention grows around the March 5 House of Representatives election particularly the high-profile contest in Jhapa-5 between Balendra “Balen” Shah and KP Sharma Oli analysts say the real political battleground lies in Madhesh Province, where 32 parliamentary seats are at stake.

All major national and regional parties have concentrated their campaigns in Madhesh due to its electoral weight. The Nepali Congress, long considered influential in the region, has fielded its president Gagan Kumar Thapa from Siraha-4 and will unveil its election manifesto in Janakpur to signal the province’s importance.

After resigning as Kathmandu mayor, Balen Shah entered national politics through the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), which has projected him as its prime ministerial candidate. The party hopes his popularity will translate into votes, especially since Shah was born in Mahottari. However, observers note he did little to build a Madhesh-centric identity during his mayoral tenure.

Political analysts say Madhesh-based parties once thrived on strong agendas following the Madhesh movements, but declining credibility and unmet promises have opened space for national parties to regain influence. Even so, experts believe the excitement around Shah represents curiosity rather than firm voter commitment.

Voters appear divided over Shah’s campaign style. Some view his aggressive approach as a challenge to established political forces, while others see it as arrogance, particularly after limited interaction with local residents during rallies.

Analysts also point to organisational strength as a decisive factor. Compared to established parties like the Nepali Congress, CPN-UML and regional Madhesh parties, the RSP lacks a deep grassroots network, which could hinder its performance in direct elections. Many of its candidates have previously contested from other parties, weakening its claim of being a completely new political alternative.

Observers say the party’s earlier momentum after its Janakpur rally has not continued. Still, the RSP could perform better in proportional representation voting than in first-past-the-post races.

Overall, experts expect a four-way competition in Madhesh among the Nepali Congress, UML, RSP and Madhesh-based parties. While Balen Shah’s presence may energise supporters, analysts believe it alone is unlikely to secure major victories for the RSP in the province.